Recently, the chemical market as a whole continued to be relatively weak at the demand level, but there has been a certain carry-over market since late 2023, and the decline in construction, the low inventory and the staged rise in oil prices have become the core factors affecting market changes.
1、Low inventory hedging demand recovery pressure changes in oil prices become an important variable affecting the volatility of the petrochemical market at this stage
At the end of 2023, the chemical market rose after a correction, and the increase in crude oil and the contraction of the supply side in the early stage have successively become the core driver to support the rise in market prices. However, after closing down slightly in the last three trading days of 2023, the upward momentum of the chemical market has weakened. In addition, due to the off-season consumption, and the stocking action before the Spring Festival has not yet started, the overall performance of petrochemical products in the consumer side is flat, and the cost transmission after the early price rise has encountered certain resistance, which has also caused a certain pressure on the continued rise of the market.
2、The cost has fallen, and the price of chemical fiber industry is relatively stable
Since late December, the rising price of crude oil has formed a certain support for the rise in the price of chemical fiber products, from chemical fiber raw materials to the product end has achieved varying degrees of increase. However, at present, the crude oil price premium caused by the Red Sea event has subsided, and the main logic of the late price is still in the fundamental aspect, and the marginal change of supply and demand will be the core logic that affects the change of oil prices. The gradual easing of geopolitical factors, doubts about production cuts, and concerns about weak demand have caused crude oil to fall for four consecutive trading days, and the current price of crude oil has dropped to about $70 / barrel, which has weakened the support of the chemical fiber market and has stabilized the market. In the later stage, after entering January, the high inventory pressure and the approaching Spring Festival factory holiday may lead to a decline in the construction of all links, and then the demand is facing contraction, and the possibility of a slight decline in prices is greater; There is a certain pre-holiday stock expectation in the second half of the year, or lead to a stage rebound in prices, as a whole, the chemical fiber industry in the cost and fundamentals of the game, in January or show a V-shaped trend.
